Bitcoin Cycle
Bitcoin has historically run roughly the same 4-year rhythm around the halving. Four signals describe where Bitcoin stands today: cycle timing "Bear" (day 893 after the halving), market regime "Sideways" (1-year return -26 %), power-law "Undervalued" and weekly RSI 61 (normal band). The four come from different calculations and can contradict each other; there is no combined score here. The chart shows how the 3 complete cycles actually continued from this exact cycle day, each as its own line. This is not a forecast.
Where Bitcoin stands today
Each value comes from its own calculation. They can contradict each other, and there is no combined score.
How the three past cycles ran from this point
Each completed halving cycle (2012, 2016, 2020) rebased to "100 = today", from today's cycle day (893). Left of the TODAY line the path so far (current cycle in bold), right of it how it actually continued back then, as a × multiple of today's level. Three lines instead of a smoothed band, because they run far apart and an average would hide that.
Right of the TODAY line: how the three past cycles actually continued from this point, as a × multiple of today's level. Left of it 120 days of run-up for context. Hover for individual days.
Base rates: what happened after RSI-bottom signals
From 7 past weekly RSI signals: the share that was higher after X months, with a Wilson 95% interval.
Squares: one per signal, filled = higher afterwards, empty = lower, dashed = not long enough ago. Bar: hit rate (tick) with Wilson 95% range; the line at 50% is a coin flip.
Context
Methodology & limits
Frequently asked questions
01What is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle?
Roughly every four years the "halving" cuts the rate of new Bitcoin issuance in half. Historically a recurring pattern of bear market, accumulation and two upward phases followed. Whether it repeats is uncertain.
02Can this predict the Bitcoin price?
No, by design. The page fuses nothing into a price target or a probability. It only shows where Bitcoin stands today across several signals and how price actually behaved in the three past cycles from a comparable point. Three cycles are far too few for a serious prediction; the three separate lines show that.
03Which phase is Bitcoin in right now?
Two views: by cycle timing (day 893) the "Bear" phase, a fixed day-window and not a detector. By price, the 1-year return (-26 %) measures the actual market: currently "Sideways" (capitulation below -35%, euphoria above +100%). Timing only labels the position on the cycle clock; price measures the market.
04Is the 4-year cycle still valid, or breaking this time?
Our data can't answer that: there are only 3 complete cycles, far too few to judge stability. That's why we show the signals separately, above all the fixed timing phase (days since halving) and the price-based market regime. When they diverge, it's a hint that the usual timing could shift. Factors that could change the cycle (spot ETFs, institutional demand, macro) lie outside our pure price data. We describe patterns of the past. Whether they repeat is open.
05What do the base rates with "Wilson 95%" mean?
For each past RSI-bottom signal we compute the forward return. "5 of 6 were higher after 12 months" is the raw hit rate, but with only 6 cases it is extremely uncertain. The Wilson 95% interval gives the range the "true" rate could lie in. We show it as prominently as the rate itself.
06Why no overall probability or traffic light?
Because a single aggregated number on such a tiny sample (3 complete cycles, ~7 RSI signals) creates a false precision that cannot be falsified. We prefer to show the signals separately and with their uncertainty (confidence intervals). And because the signals historically fire at the same point, four aligned signals are not "four times as certain": they measure the same thing.