Bitcoin Seasonality
Over the 13 complete years since 2013 (2013-2025), November was on average the strongest calendar month (avg +41 %, up in 8 of 13 years), September the weakest (avg -3 %). All computed from monthly closes in our own database. That's only 13 values per month: a rough guide that describes the past and not a forecast.
Heatmap: year × month
Each cell is that month's return (close to close): green for up, red for down, stronger the bigger the move. The bottom row shows each month's average across all 13 years.
Months compared
One square per year, sorted rather than chronological: filled = month closed up, empty = closed down, dashed = September 2026, still running. A long filled run means the month was reliable; a high average with a short run comes from a few strong years.
| Month | AvgAvg return | Median | Positive | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JanJanuary | +5 % | +1 % | 7/13 | -33 % … +55 % |
| FebFebruary | +13 % | +12 % | 9/13 | -31 % … +63 % |
| MarMarch | +13 % | -2 % | 6/13 | -33 % … +187 % |
| AprApril | +12 % | +8 % | 8/13 | -17 % … +44 % |
| MayMay | +10 % | +10 % | 7/13 | -35 % … +69 % |
| JunJune | -1 % | +2 % | 7/13 | -38 % … +26 % |
| JulJuly | +8 % | +8 % | 9/13 | -9 % … +24 % |
| AugAugust | +1 % | -8 % | 4/13 | -19 % … +65 % |
| SepSeptember | -3 % | -3 % | 5/13 | -19 % … +7 % |
| OctOctober | +20 % | +14 % | 10/13 | -13 % … +61 % |
| NovNovember | +41 % | +9 % | 8/13 | -37 % … +450 % |
| DecDecember | +4 % | -3 % | 5/13 | -35 % … +48 % |
"Avg" = mean (skewed by outliers), "Median" = middle value (more robust). "Positive X/13" = the month closed up in that many of the 13 years (2013-2025).
Methodology & data
Frequently asked questions
01Which month is historically best for Bitcoin?
Since 2013, November was strongest on average (avg +41 %, positive in 8 of 13 years). The highest hit rate belonged to October at 77 % positive years.
02What is "Uptober"?
"Uptober" is the nickname for October as a strong Bitcoin month. In our data since 2013, October averages +20 % (10/13 years up).
03Is seasonality reliable?
Only loosely, because there are only 13 years per month (2013-2025), which is few data points. The average is skewed by a few extreme years (mostly the early ones); the median is more robust. We show both. Past patterns need not repeat.
04Why start in 2013?
Before 2013 Bitcoin was so small and illiquid that single months swung by four-digit percentages. That would make every later average useless. From 2013 the monthly patterns are more meaningful.